WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 11:05 P.M. ET:   A number of polls now show President Obama's approval rating in the high forties, give or take a few points.  But Stu Rothenberg, one of the most astute political analysts around, has written a very persuasive piece arguing that the president may be in worse shape than the numbers indicate.  From Roll Call:

In March of 2006, Bush's job approval fell to 33 percent in Pew polling, and immediately before the 2008 elections, in late October, his job approval stood at 20 percent, while a stunning 70 percent disapproved. In December 2008, as he was about to leave office, Bush's job ratings stood at 24 percent approval and 68 percent disapproval.

In comparison with those numbers, Obama looks wildly popular.

But Obama continues to earn much higher marks, in part, because his base, including liberal Democrats and African-Americans, has been standing by him, which has tended to prevent his overall job approval numbers from falling as much as they otherwise might.

For example, while Obama's job approval in the Pew survey stood at 46 percent among all adults, it was 87 percent among African-Americans and 81 percent among liberal Democrats.

In comparison, the president's job approval stood at 77 percent among all Democrats, at just 42 percent among independents and at a weak 39 percent among white independents.

And...

Of course, all of the president's numbers could change between now and November 2012, but for now, they constitute a considerable problem for him, since independents are a key swing constituency and Obama's strong showing among swing voters was one of the most important reasons why he did so well overall and in key states such as Ohio and Florida.

COMMENT:  Independents will decide the next election.  That is why the choice of a Republican candidate is so critical.  He or she must, of course, articulate conservative values, but must also have the unique ability to appeal to independents.  No appeal to the "I" vote, no victory.  And I'm not interested in second place or "moral" victories.  The future of our country may depend on the next election.

July 5, 2011